Hong Kong is expected to raise its full-year economic growth forecast after recording stronger-than-expected expansion during the first half of 2026, according to Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po.
In a weekly blog post published on Sunday, Chan said the city’s economy performed better than earlier projections, prompting authorities to prepare an upward revision to the official gross domestic product (GDP) forecast later this month.
The announcement follows data showing that Hong Kong’s economy expanded by 5.1 percent year on year during the first six months of 2026.
The government currently forecasts annual GDP growth of between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent for the year. However, the latest economic results suggest growth could exceed that range if current trends continue.
Chan said several factors contributed to the stronger performance, including robust exports, solid domestic demand, and continued activity in financial markets.
Exports remain one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s economy. The finance chief noted that global demand for artificial intelligence products is expected to continue supporting export growth during the second half of the year.
He added that international demand for Hong Kong’s financial and professional services remains strong, helping boost services exports.
Tourism is also contributing to economic recovery. Rising visitor numbers are supporting local businesses, consumer spending, and investment confidence across multiple sectors of the economy.
Despite the positive outlook, Chan warned that external risks remain.
He pointed to geopolitical developments, changes in global financial conditions, and interest rate movements linked to the US dollar as factors that could affect future economic performance.
According to Chan, the government will continue monitoring developments closely while working to maintain both economic growth and financial stability.
Official figures show that Hong Kong’s economy expanded by 4.3 percent year on year during the second quarter of 2026.
This marked the city’s 14th consecutive quarter of economic growth, reflecting a sustained recovery across several industries.
One of the strongest contributors was merchandise trade. Goods exports increased by 28.8 percent during the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier.
Private consumption also improved, rising by 2.9 percent year on year as household spending continued to recover.
The financial sector has provided additional support for the economy.
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index recorded a strong performance in July, gaining approximately 3,000 points. The increase represented the index’s largest monthly rise in nearly two years.
Market activity also remained elevated. Average daily trading turnover exceeded HK$300 billion, or about US$38.3 billion, for two consecutive months.
Chan said the city’s capital markets continue to attract strong investor interest.
Funds raised through initial public offerings during the first seven months of 2026 have already surpassed the total amount raised during all of 2025.
According to the finance chief, IPO fundraising exceeded last year’s full-year total by more than 13 percent.
Post-listing refinancing activity also increased significantly, rising more than 20 percent compared with the same period last year.
Alongside economic growth, Hong Kong is continuing efforts to strengthen its role in the international use of the Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi.
A major development is scheduled for Monday with the launch of an offshore Chinese government bond futures contract on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Chan described the product as an important milestone for the city’s financial markets.
The five-year futures contract will be the only offshore product of its kind. It will allow international investors to trade Chinese government bond futures through Hong Kong accounts using familiar market infrastructure.
Officials believe the new contract will improve risk management options for investors holding renminbi-denominated assets.
The product is expected to strengthen links between Hong Kong’s cash and futures markets while supporting existing cross-border investment programs.
Chan said the futures contract will provide a standardized and liquid tool for managing interest rate and treasury bond risks in offshore markets.
The initiative forms part of Hong Kong’s broader strategy to deepen the international use of the renminbi and strengthen financial connections between mainland China and global investors.
According to Chan, Hong Kong will continue serving as a bridge between mainland and international financial markets while expanding offshore yuan products and services.
He said the city remains committed to reinforcing its status as the world’s leading offshore renminbi center and maintaining its position as a major global financial hub.
With economic growth accelerating, exports strengthening, and financial markets remaining active, officials are increasingly optimistic about Hong Kong’s economic prospects for the remainder of 2026.
