China is taking the lead in the global shift away from fossil fuels, and other nations must follow if they want to protect their economies and limit climate damage, former US Secretary of State John Kerry has said. His comments come as world leaders and climate experts prepare for COP31 in Turkey, where China’s role in global climate policy is expected to draw close attention.
The annual climate summit is taking place at a time of growing questions about whether Beijing is ready to take a stronger leadership role. China has often avoided taking the lead in international climate talks, despite its growing influence in clean energy markets. However, its latest five-year plan, adopted in March 2026, marked a change in tone. For the first time, the country pledged to actively take part in and lead global climate governance.
COP31 may offer an early sign of whether China intends to turn that promise into action. Its decisions could also shape how other major economies approach the energy transition.
China’s growing influence comes largely from its success in clean energy production. Green technology has become an important part of the country’s export economy. This has helped support growth while domestic consumer spending remains weak.
In 2025, Chinese clean technology exports passed $220 billion. They are expected to rise again this year. China is now the world’s largest supplier of several key clean energy products. It holds about 85% of global solar supply chain production capacity and around 80% of lithium-ion battery capacity. Nearly three out of every four electric cars made in 2025 were also produced in China.
These figures have placed Beijing at the centre of the global clean energy industry. Its decisions on exports, investment and technology could influence how quickly other countries move away from oil, coal and gas.
Kerry said the United States and other major economies risk losing economic opportunities if they fail to expand low-carbon energy. He argued that China is moving much faster than its rivals.
He said China was the only country to have greatly accelerated its clean energy development. Other nations, he added, were moving too slowly even as climate change brings stronger warnings through extreme weather and rising environmental risks.
Kerry also linked China’s energy shift to concerns about dependence on foreign fuel supplies. He said Beijing had recognised the risks of relying too heavily on imported oil and gas. That concern has become more important for other countries following the war in Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict has pushed governments to look more closely at renewable energy and other domestic power sources. Kerry said the disruption had helped drive a major rise in renewable energy projects. He also suggested that US President Donald Trump’s policies had added to the pressure for other countries to become more energy independent.
Kerry believes the economic case for clean energy could encourage even authoritarian governments to change their policies. He said countries would follow the market when they saw that renewable power and energy storage could offer lower costs than fossil fuels.
He argued that renewable energy, battery storage and some temporary use of gas could provide a cheaper and more effective system than continued dependence on fossil fuels. In his view, the global market has already chosen electricity as the main source of future energy growth.
China has also made clear that it wants COP31 to address the movement of green technology across borders. Beijing has called for fewer barriers to the international flow of clean energy products. The issue has become more sensitive as the United States and European Union impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar products and other goods.
The dispute raises a wider question about whether trade restrictions could slow the global energy transition. China’s clean technology exports give it strong influence, but tensions with major trading partners could limit cooperation.
Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute said China faces an important choice. Climate action was once seen mainly as a cost for economic growth. It is now increasingly viewed as a source of industrial development and commercial opportunity. China must decide whether it will use its growing position to take a larger role in global climate leadership.
The COP31 presidency has promised a summit focused on implementation and faster action. China’s record makes it a central player in that effort. Its emissions have remained flat or declined since March 2024, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
Kevin Tu of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said Beijing views the energy transition as a key part of economic modernisation and national energy security. He added that the shift also has major effects on China’s international influence.
Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have strengthened this approach by exposing the risks of relying on oil and gas supplies from unstable regions. They have also shown how energy systems can shape global power.
Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue, said the move away from fossil fuels could change long-standing economic relationships. During the oil era, the US dollar gained a central role in global trade because oil was widely priced and traded in dollars.
A world powered more by electricity could create a different balance of influence. China’s strong position in batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles gives it an advantage in that emerging system.
COP31 will test whether Beijing is prepared to turn its industrial strength into greater diplomatic leadership. Its approach could influence climate cooperation, global trade and the future of energy security.
