Beef prices in the United States have climbed to historic highs, turning into a growing political storm. Donald Trump, who once claimed that inflation was “dead,” now faces criticism as beef costs soar and threaten his promise to lower grocery prices for American families. This week, he urged ranchers on social media to cut cattle prices. But his demand — and his administration’s new proposals — have provoked outrage from ranchers who fear his ideas could destroy their profits while barely helping consumers.
Decades of decline in the cattle industry
The number of US cattle ranchers has been shrinking for more than four decades. Beef supply has fallen while demand remains strong, pushing prices ever higher. The national cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level in nearly 75 years. Since 2017, the country has lost over 150,000 ranches — a decline of 17%, according to the Agriculture Department.
Ranchers say they are squeezed by decades of consolidation among the powerful meat processors that dominate the market. Rising costs for fertiliser, feed, and machinery have made survival even harder. Years of drought have also forced many to reduce their herds dramatically.
In Illinois, rancher Christian Lovell said once-green fields on his farm have dried up completely. “You put all these together and you have a recipe for a really broken market,” said Lovell, who works with the advocacy group Farm Action.
Beef prices soar past food inflation
Retail beef prices have surged well beyond overall food inflation. Ground beef climbed 12.9% over the past year, while beef steaks jumped 16.6%, according to government data. A pound of ground chuck now costs $6.33, up from $5.58 last year. By contrast, overall food inflation stands at just 3.1%.
“The cattle herd has been shrinking for several years, yet people still crave American beef,” said Brenda Boetel, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.
Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, said prices will likely remain high until at least the end of the decade. Rebuilding herds takes years, he noted, leaving the Trump administration with few short-term solutions.
Import plan ignites political backlash
The Agriculture Department this week unveiled a plan to boost domestic beef production by opening more land for grazing and supporting smaller meat processors. But Trump’s proposal to import more beef from Argentina — potentially quadrupling current levels — sparked fury among ranchers.
Eight House Republicans sent a letter to the White House warning that the plan could devastate American producers. Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, which often supports Trump, said the proposal “creates chaos during a critical time for ranchers while doing nothing to lower grocery prices.”
Trump defended his policy, pointing to tariffs that limit imports from Brazil. “They have to get their prices down,” he wrote. “The consumer is a big factor in my thinking.” But the backlash from the ranching community shows no sign of slowing.
Justin Tupper, president of the US Cattlemen’s Association, said only the big four meat packers would profit. “I don’t see that lowering prices here at all,” he said.
Corporate control and consolidation
Experts argue that real change must confront the dominance of four corporations — Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — which control more than 80% of US beef processing.
“These are consolidated markets gouging ranchers and gouging consumers,” said Austin Frerick, an agricultural policy expert at Yale University.
The companies have faced multiple lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s accusing them of colluding to inflate beef prices. Earlier this year, Trump rolled back a Biden-era order designed to fight corporate concentration in food industries. Even so, his administration has begun fresh investigations into competition practices in agriculture.
Ranchers warn of a bleak future
In Kansas, rancher Mike Callicrate has survived by cutting out middlemen and selling beef directly to customers. But he said most ranchers cannot afford to do that. Many have already left the business — and few are eager to return.
“We’re not going to rebuild this cow herd — not until we address market concentration,” Callicrate said. He supports opening more grazing land but insists, “Without a fair market, you’re a fool to get into the cattle business.”
Bill Bullard, head of the trade group R-CALF USA, closed his 300-cow ranch in South Dakota back in 1985 as consolidation began to crush small producers. He said ranchers only recently began receiving better prices because supplies have become so scarce that processors had no choice but to pay more.
Still, Bullard said the system remains broken. Heavy reliance on imports and the dominance of meat processors continue to undermine trust in the market. “He’s focused on the symptoms, not the problems,” Bullard said of Trump’s efforts.
For now, America’s beef industry stands at a crossroads — with prices still climbing, ranchers under strain, and Trump struggling to deliver relief to both producers and consumers.
